As recently as October 20,2008 I measured the rate of monthly decline in Newport Hills,
adjacent to the Sun City Core, to be 3.9% per month. That is a drop of approx. 1% a week.
No bottom yet visible.
Update on November sales in Sun City Core.
2003-7 sales ; 2004-12 sales ;2005-11 sales;2006-8 sales; 2007- 7 sales
Update on September sales in Sun City core:
Volume is down compared to every year since 2002.
Update on June 2008 sales in Sun City Core
VolumE is down compared to every year since 2005
2005-15 sales- average sales price $231,817
2006-12 sales- average sales price $230,417
2007-16 sales- average sales price $188,238
2008- 6 sales- average sales price $150,467
There were 5 sales in May 2008 with an average sales price of $142,000. There were 8 sales in April with an average sales price of $154,750. There were 7 sales in March with an average sales price of $184,714.
Not enough data to determine if the market has hit bottom yet.
Here’s a quick update on current market conditions in Sun City, California. On the weekends when I’m out riding my bike for exercise, I drop by the open houses and check out the listings. I looked at 5 on June 2,2007. All the agents had the same thing to report: NO BUYERS. One of the homeowners told me today that only 1 person showed up at the open house.
The spring/summer home buying season has failed to materialize here. The buyers that are out there are the bargain hunters according to the agents. If June continues on the same way, it will be a miserable season. July and August are extremely hot months here (weather wise) and that itself is a damper on the market. A lot of people prefer not to look for houses when the heat peaks up. Agents are worried. 31% of the active listing have had price reductions. As of 6/14/2007 there were 123 listings on the market. In May there were 22 sales which is .70 sales per day which translates into approximately 6 months of standing inventory.
I also noticed a lot more “For Rent “signs than I usually notice. It looks like some people have given up trying to sell. The one FHA approved condo complex here is at its maximum with rentals also.
I'm also seeing a lot of REO (real estate owned) properties on the market outside the core. Increasingly, the market is being REO driven. In newer neighborhood the REO's are leading the market down. There is a real disconnect between the REO list prices and regular seller's list price. The market is educating the regular sellers on their overpriced listings. Who is going to pay their prices when a REO across the street is $40,000 less. Anyway, no good news to report. I expect it to get worse before it gets better.
Here’s a graph that shows the average May selling price in the Sun City “Core” for the last 6 years. Theres also a trend line for days on market which are increasing dramatically compared to the last 6 years. It looks like a long hot summer for sellers.
http://img53.imageshack.us/img53/2914/suncitymayej9.jpg
Click on the above link for an enlarged graph version.